I'm back in a state with Bet365, the sportsbook that powered our massive win in Week 2. I'm not superstitious, but I am a little stitious, and I don't think it was a coincidence that when we bet a lotto on Bet365 it won.
So, we're back in NFL Week 6 with four players up at alternate lines.
I've bet 1u on all of the below's standard overs as well. These four just represent the players I consider to have the largest upside this weekend. Bet responsibly, and good luck!
Normal line: Over 62.5 yards (-114 FD)
This one is quite simple. Calvin Ridley went for 101 against this very same Indianapolis defense in Week 1. He's fresh off his best game yet, catching seven balls for 122 yards against Buffalo, a performance I expect him to carry over into this weekend.
This Indianapolis secondary remains a problem. DeAndre Hopkins just went for 140, the fourth 100+ yard receiver the Colts have allowed. Indy particularly lets up explosive plays in the passing game, and Ridley has been serving that role in this Jacksonville offense.
Normal line: 74.5 yards (-115 DK)
De'Von Achane is out and Jeff Wilson is doubtful, so it should be the Raheem Mostert show this weekend. That's great news considering Carolina is allowing the fifth-highest yards per rush attempt and the third-most rushing yards per game to RBs at 128.0.
Mostert feels set for 15-17 carries in what should be a blowout, and I for one expect him to break off a few long runs. Mostert has gone for 100+ once this year, but with the backfield his for the week, he should pop.
Normal line: 66.5 yards (-114 FD)
Speaking of bad run defenses, Cincinnati has really struggled slowing down running backs. The Bengals are allowing the fifth-most yards per game to RBs (107.2) and the third-highest yards per rush attempt.
In comes Seattle's top running back, Kenneth Walker. Walker has yet to cross the century mark this year, but, the volume is there for a big outing.
Walker has 17+ carries in three straight games, and since the beginning of last year, when Walker hits that rushing threshold, he has exceeded 100+ yards in five of 10 games. I love me some Walker this weekend.
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
Normal line: 43.5 yards (-115 DK)
I actually already covered Drake London's over in a separate article; sorry for the double-dip in writing. I'll just save my analysis to say that three straight WR1s have gone for 100+ against Washington, and here I am asking for only 75+.
London has 29 targets over the past four weeks, and he's hit that number in three of his last six home games.
More must-reads:
Bark Bets is Yardbarker's free daily guide to the world of sports betting. You'll get:
Subscribe now!